Market Stress Dashboard

Last refreshed: Apr 28, 2026 07:30

⚠ STALE DATA2 indicators may be behind schedule: Chicago Fed NFCI, St. Louis Fed FSI

⚠ DATA QUALITY (3 issues)(click to expand)

Credit Spreads: bucket score unchanged for ≥3 days (value: 16.2 — possible stale source)
Financial Conditions: bucket score unchanged for ≥3 days (value: 31.6 — possible stale source)
Economic Momentum: bucket score unchanged for ≥3 days (value: 34.3 — possible stale source)

Composite Stress Score — Weighted Average of 11 Buckets

COMPOSITE — WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 11 BUCKETS

out of 100

orange

— (need 8+ days)

3yr window: 47 yellow

VIX regime: MID (smoothed VIX 18.9 — boundaries 14.6 / 19.5)

Regime preview: 50 (disabled)

1 red 1 orange 5 yellow

What does this mean?

The 0–100 score measures market stress across 11 signal categories: equity volatility, credit spreads, yield curve, rates, liquidity, commodities, bonds, sentiment, economic momentum, spillover effects, and market breadth. 0 = all calm; 100 = severe stress across the board.

The band (green/yellow/orange/red) reflects your current position in the stress distribution. Green = historically calm; yellow = elevated but not alarming; orange = material stress; red = critical conditions.

How to use it: This score is a summary, not a signal. Use it to think through your positioning and risk: Are you comfortable with the stress level? Does your portfolio match your conviction? What's moving? Are you missing something? Never take action on the score alone—always reconcile it with your own view and the conditions you see.

▶ What does this score mean?

The number is a market "fever reading" from 0 to 100. It shows how stressed U.S. financial markets are right now compared to every day in the past 10 years. A score of 60 means today looks more stressed than 60% of all days on record.

The colour bands: Green (<30) — calm, below-average stress. Yellow (30–50) — elevated but not alarming, worth watching. Orange (50–70) — significant strain in multiple areas, pay attention. Red (≥70) — high stress, comparable to serious historical episodes like 2008 or 2020.

How it's built: 26 individual market indicators are grouped into 11 signal categories (buckets). Each indicator is scored relative to its own history, then the buckets are weighted and averaged into the composite. Buckets that have historically been better predictors of market stress carry more weight.

How to use it: This is an early-warning gauge, not a trading signal. A rising score means stress is building somewhere — the buckets below show exactly where. Use it to direct your attention, not to make buy/sell decisions.

REVIEW PROMPTS

Questions to guide your response given current conditions

Orange-band reviewclick to expand

What is your actual drawdown tolerance — tested, not theoretical?
Do you have adequate dry powder to add on further weakness?
Which 2–3 positions are most vulnerable to a credit or liquidity event?
Are you experiencing urgency bias — feeling you must act NOW rather than when your criteria are met?
What would cause you to de-risk further, and have you pre-committed to that threshold?

ESCALATION SCENARIOS

Pre-mortem: plausible 60–90 day paths if current stress persists or escalates

Commodities & EnergyRED · click to expand

Oil above $100/bbl sustained for 90+ days has historically triggered consumer spending contraction and Fed overtightening. Energy input costs feed into core CPI with a 3–6 month lag, potentially keeping inflation elevated even as growth slows — the stagflation path.

Watch: WTI trajectory, 12-month oil futures strip, gasoline rack prices

1973, 1979, 1990, 2007–08: oil spikes preceded recessions

Global Spillover & Cross-Border RiskORANGE · click to expand

Dollar index above 122 historically chokes off EM sovereign debt refinancing and triggers capital outflows from fragile EM economies. EM stress tends to lead U.S. HY spread widening by 2–4 weeks, making this a leading indicator for domestic credit deterioration.

Watch: EM FX reserves depletion rate, EM sovereign CDS, euro-area PMI

1997 Asian crisis, 2015 EM selloff: EM stress preceded U.S. HY by ~3 weeks

AI NARRATIVE SUMMARY

The 10-year composite stress index stands at 50.0 (orange band), indicating moderate systemic stress with asymmetric pressure concentrated in commodities/energy (96.9, red). Inflation pressure remains elevated at 81.9, while equity volatility and funding conditions show yellow-band stress. The lack of 7-day momentum data and insufficient regime classification suggest stress is stabilizing rather than accelerating, though commodity-driven tail risks warrant monitoring.

AI-generated summary (Claude) · not financial advice

Overnight News Brief

SNB Rate Cut Signals Easing Cycle**: Swiss National Bank's 50bp cut to 0.5% marks aggressive pivot toward monetary accommodation, suggesting European central banks moving ahead of Fed on easing despite inflation concerns.
Powell Opens Door to September Rate Cuts**: Fed Chair signals rate cuts "on the table" as soon as Q3 2026, with labor market deemed no longer inflationary pressure—key shift from recent hawkish stance that could trigger broader policy expectations reset.
Corporate Debt Stress Emerging**: Market anxiety over mounting S&P 500 debt levels indicates credit cycle deterioration concerns; elevated leverage against backdrop of potential rate cuts creates refinancing and solvency risks for highly leveraged firms.
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Rate Cut Signals**: Gold/silver price declines amid inflation mounting suggest inflation expectations remain sticky, creating policy dilemma where central banks cutting rates face headwind from persistent price pressures—potential stagflation signal.

0.54

cross-bucket corr (30d)

NORMAL

<0.30 decorrelated · 0.30–0.60 normal · ≥0.60 crisis

Typical co-movement between buckets. No unusual synchronization detected.

Model Calibration

—

rolling IC (4 obs, 21d horizon)

as of 2026-04-28

1 alert fired

T+7 outcomes pending

INSUFFICIENT HISTORYIC ≥ 0.15 = Tracking · 0.05–0.15 = Weak · <0.05 = Miscalibrated

backtest: 2026-04-25 15:58·composite: 2026-04-28 07:30⚠ 64h apart — re-run backtest to resync⚠ backtest is 3d old — consider re-running

View full backtest report →

90-Day Composite Trend

Composite stress score (0–100) over the last 90 days · Green <30 · Yellow 30–50 · Orange 50–70 · Red ≥70 · Today is on the right

Upcoming Macro Events (14 days)

Apr 28 Tue7-Year Note Auction→ treasury_auction_stress (Rates)

Apr 29 WedFOMC Decision→ ten_year (Rates)

Apr 30 ThuGDPnot in model

Apr 30 ThuPCEnot in model

May 01 FriISM Mfg PMInot in model

May 05 TueISM Services PMInot in model

May 08 FriNFP→ jobless_claims (Economic Momentum)

May 12 TueCPI→ cpi_yoy (Inflation)

FOMCAuctionEconomic

Signal Buckets — 11 Categories

Equity Volatility

13% of composite

67/100

VIX CBOE Volatility Index — market's 30-day expected S&P 500 vol from options 50% of bucket · 6.5% of composite	18.02 as of 2026-04-27	59th green
VIX Term Structure VIX/VIX3M ratio — compares 30-day to 3-month implied vol 25% of bucket · 3.2% of composite	0.93 as of 2026-04-28	72th green
S&P 500 1M Realized Vol Trailing 1-month realized volatility of the S&P 500 (annualized %) 25% of bucket · 3.2% of composite	16.04% as of 2026-04-27	80th yellow

Credit Spreads

15% of composite

16/100

HY Option-Adjusted Spread ICE BofA High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread over Treasuries (%) 60% of bucket · 9.0% of composite	2.86% as of 2026-04-24	20th green
IG BBB Option-Adjusted Spread ICE BofA BBB Option-Adjusted Spread (%) 40% of bucket · 6.0% of composite	1.00% as of 2026-04-24	11th green

Rates & Yield Curve

12% of composite

53/100

10Yâ€“2Y Spread 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury yield (%) 45% of bucket · 5.4% of composite	0.57% as of 2026-04-27	63th green
10Y Treasury Yield 10-Year U.S 20% of bucket · 2.4% of composite	4.34% as of 2026-04-27	91th yellow
MOVE Index (Rate Vol) ICE BofA MOVE Index — implied volatility of U.S 20% of bucket · 2.4% of composite	68.42 as of 2026-04-27	46th green
Treasury Auction Stress Composite z-score of Treasury auction quality (10Y Note + 30Y Bond) 15% of bucket · 1.8% of composite	0.21 as of 2026-04-09	60th green

Financial Conditions

13% of composite

32/100

Chicago Fed NFCI Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index 55% of bucket · 7.2% of composite	-0.50 as of 2026-04-17	48th green
St. Louis Fed FSI St 45% of bucket · 5.9% of composite	-0.76 as of 2026-04-17	11th green

Inflation Pressure

9% of composite

82/100

5Y Inflation Breakeven 5-Year inflation breakeven rate — market's expectation for avg CPI over 5 years (%) 55% of bucket · 5.0% of composite	2.62% as of 2026-04-27	90th yellow
CPI Year-over-Year Consumer Price Index, year-over-year change (%) 45% of bucket · 4.0% of composite	3.32% as of 2026-03-01	72th green

Funding & Liquidity

8% of composite

65/100

SOFR Spread to EFFR Spread between SOFR (actual overnight bank rate) and the Fed's EFFR target (basis points) 50% of bucket · 4.0% of composite	2.0 bps as of 2026-04-24	80th green
Repo Market Stress(manual) Manual assessment of repo market conditions (0=calm, 1=elevated, 2=crisis, 3=extreme) 50% of bucket · 4.0% of composite	0.00	50th green

Commodities & Energy

7% of composite

97/100

WTI Crude Oil WTI crude oil price ($/barrel) 55% of bucket · 3.9% of composite	$96.8 as of 2026-04-27	96th yellow
Oil 1M Realized Vol 1-month realized volatility of WTI crude (annualized %) 45% of bucket · 3.2% of composite	100.47% as of 2026-04-27	98th red

Economic Momentum

7% of composite

34/100

Initial Claims (4-wk avg) 4-week moving average of U.S 55% of bucket · 3.9% of composite	210.8K as of 2026-04-18	14th green
Unemployment Rate U.S 45% of bucket · 3.2% of composite	4.30% as of 2026-03-01	60th green

Sentiment

4% of composite

26/100

CNN Fear & Greed CNN Fear & Greed index (0=extreme fear, 100=extreme greed) 65% of bucket · 2.6% of composite	67.34 as of 2026-04-27	88th green
Geopolitical Risk(manual) Manual geopolitical risk score (0=calm, 1=elevated, 2=crisis) 35% of bucket · 1.4% of composite	0.00	50th green

Global Spillover & Cross-Border Risk

7% of composite

42/100

Broad Dollar Index Broad real dollar index (DTWEXBGS) 30% of bucket · 2.1% of composite	118.73 as of 2026-04-24	60th yellow
Euro HY OAS ICE BofA Euro High Yield Spread (%) 25% of bucket · 1.8% of composite	2.86% as of 2026-04-24	18th green
EM Corporate OAS ICE BofA EM Corporate Bond Spread (%) 25% of bucket · 1.8% of composite	1.54% as of 2026-04-24	8th green
EM Equity 1M Realized Vol 1-month realized volatility of the EEM ETF (EM equities, annualized %) 20% of bucket · 1.4% of composite	27.09% as of 2026-04-27	90th orange

Market Breadth & Trend

5% of composite

52/100

Sector Breadth (% below 200d MA) Percentage of the 11 S&P 500 sector ETFs (XLY, XLC, XLK, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLF, XLB 60% of bucket · 3.0% of composite	18.18% as of 2026-04-27	53th green
SPX Distance from 200d MA S&P 500 % distance from its 200-day moving average 40% of bucket · 2.0% of composite	6.91% as of 2026-04-27	49th green

HISTORICAL ANALOGS

2022 Rate ShockJan–Jun 2022

91%

inflation rates slow burn

2023 SVB / Banking StressMar 2023

88%

credit rates funding

Pattern similarity based on bucket score profile — not a forecast

Indicator Details

VIX18.02 green

Current	18.020	Percentile	59th
10yr min	9.140	10yr max	82.690
10yr median	16.720	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

VIX Term Structure0.93 green

Current	0.928 ratio	Percentile	72th
10yr min	0.736 ratio	10yr max	1.344 ratio
10yr median	0.878 ratio	Last obs.	Apr 28, 2026

S&P 500 1M Realized Vol16.04% yellow

Current	16.039 %	Percentile	80th
10yr min	5.418 %	10yr max	49.284 %
10yr median	12.778 %	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

HY Option-Adjusted Spread2.86% green

Current	2.860 %	Percentile	20th
10yr min	2.590 %	10yr max	4.950 %
10yr median	3.170 %	Last obs.	Apr 24, 2026

IG BBB Option-Adjusted Spread1.00% green

Current	1.000 %	Percentile	11th
10yr min	0.930 %	10yr max	1.850 %
10yr median	1.140 %	Last obs.	Apr 24, 2026

10Yâ€“2Y Spread0.57% green

Current	0.570 %	Percentile	63th
10yr min	-1.080 %	10yr max	1.590 %
10yr median	0.450 %	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

10Y Treasury Yield4.34% yellow

Current	4.336 %	Percentile	91th
10yr min	0.499 %	10yr max	4.988 %
10yr median	2.669 %	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

MOVE Index (Rate Vol)68.42 green

Current	68.422	Percentile	46th
10yr min	36.620	10yr max	182.640
10yr median	71.120	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

Treasury Auction Stress0.21 green

Current	0.213 Ïƒ	Percentile	60th
10yr min	-2.185 Ïƒ	10yr max	1.268 Ïƒ
10yr median	0.094 Ïƒ	Last obs.	Apr 09, 2026

Chicago Fed NFCI-0.50 green

Current	-0.497	Percentile	48th
10yr min	-0.694	10yr max	0.306
10yr median	-0.490	Last obs.	Apr 17, 2026

St. Louis Fed FSI-0.76 green

Current	-0.758	Percentile	11th
10yr min	-0.976	10yr max	5.668
10yr median	-0.426	Last obs.	Apr 17, 2026

5Y Inflation Breakeven2.62% yellow

Current	2.620 %	Percentile	90th
10yr min	0.140 %	10yr max	3.590 %
10yr median	2.110 %	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

CPI Year-over-Year3.32% green

Current	3.320 %	Percentile	72th
10yr min	0.198 %	10yr max	8.979 %
10yr median	2.719 %	Last obs.	Mar 01, 2026

SOFR Spread to EFFR2.0 bps green

Current	2.000 bps	Percentile	80th
10yr min	-15.000 bps	10yr max	295.000 bps
10yr median	-1.000 bps	Last obs.	Apr 24, 2026

Repo Market Stress0.00 green

Manual indicator — no time series available.

WTI Crude Oil$96.8 yellow

Current	96.760 $/bbl	Percentile	96th
10yr min	-37.630 $/bbl	10yr max	123.700 $/bbl
10yr median	63.910 $/bbl	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

Oil 1M Realized Vol100.47% red

Current	100.470 %	Percentile	98th
10yr min	14.067 %	10yr max	201.818 %
10yr median	30.496 %	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

Initial Claims (4-wk avg)210.8K green

Current	210.750 K	Percentile	14th
10yr min	197.500 K	10yr max	5288.250 K
10yr median	226.750 K	Last obs.	Apr 18, 2026

Unemployment Rate4.30% green

Current	4.300 %	Percentile	60th
10yr min	3.400 %	10yr max	14.800 %
10yr median	4.100 %	Last obs.	Mar 01, 2026

CNN Fear & Greed67.34 green

Current	67.343 0â€“100	Percentile	88th
10yr min	5.171 0â€“100	10yr max	77.629 0â€“100
10yr median	52.943 0â€“100	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

Geopolitical Risk0.00 green

Manual indicator — no time series available.

Broad Dollar Index118.73 yellow

Current	118.729	Percentile	60th
10yr min	106.488	10yr max	130.041
10yr median	116.697	Last obs.	Apr 24, 2026

Euro HY OAS2.86% green

Current	2.860 %	Percentile	18th
10yr min	2.560 %	10yr max	4.950 %
10yr median	3.330 %	Last obs.	Apr 24, 2026

EM Corporate OAS1.54% green

Current	1.540 %	Percentile	8th
10yr min	1.420 %	10yr max	3.160 %
10yr median	1.840 %	Last obs.	Apr 24, 2026

EM Equity 1M Realized Vol27.09% orange

Current	27.091 %	Percentile	90th
10yr min	7.325 %	10yr max	96.320 %
10yr median	16.585 %	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

Sector Breadth (% below 200d MA)18.18% green

Current	18.182 %	Percentile	53th
10yr min	0.000 %	10yr max	100.000 %
10yr median	10.000 %	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

SPX Distance from 200d MA6.91% green

Current	6.913 %	Percentile	49th
10yr min	-13.429 %	10yr max	13.023 %
10yr median	7.039 %	Last obs.	Apr 27, 2026

Data fetch errors (2)

• STALE: nfci — last observation 11d ago (expected ≤10d for weekly series)

• STALE: stlfsi — last observation 11d ago (expected ≤10d for weekly series)